Sunday, November 30, 2008

Hollywood Park - Race 9: Gio Ponti Looks Tough in Grade I Hollywood Derby

Gio Ponti will take on eight rivals in the Grade I Hollywood Derby today. Gio Ponti no doubt is the best American three year old colt on the turf right now. The 1 1/2 mile distance shouldn't hurt him at all and he gets the services of jockey Garret Gomez.

But there are a lot of other terrific horses in here including Muny who is 3 for four on the lawn and is coming off of a victory in the Grade II Oak Tree Derby.

I'm nto going to make a horse bet on either one of those. Instead, I'm going with teh Patrick Biancone trained Albhari. Biancone is coming off of a suspension. I expect his horses to run lights out. The son of Albhari is lightly raced which means there is plenty of upside.

For second, I'm actually making a wager on Midships. First time for Bobby Frankel, out of a horse Frankel trained, Mizzen Mast, is there anything else to write?

Hollywood Park - Race 7: Visit vs. Cocoa Beach in Grade I Matriarch

Cocoa Beach, who finished second to Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic last month, returns to take on Visit, the filly that probably should have won the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf in her last start.

Visit made an eye opening move at the top of the stretch in the Filly and Mare Turf only to flatten out a few yards from the finish line. The move was easily one of the strongest I have seen from a filly on the turf in a long time.

Now in the barn of Bobby Frankel, she looks exceptionally tough in this race. I don't see how she blows it. At 5 to 2, Visit is a bit of an underlay, but what the hell? She towers over her competition save for Cocoa Beach.

I'll be putting some dollars on her today.

NBA: Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets

The Houston Rockets are coming off of a game on Saturday where they beat the San Antonio Spurs by 19 points.

Is a let down in the offering for the Rockets? I think so. In fact I believe that Houston doesn't come out nearly as fired up in this game as they did on Saturday.

The Denver Nuggets are one of the better teams against the spread in the NBA right now. To me, the Nuggets should cover the four points with ease in this game. Houston had to travel last night while the Nuggets got a day to let their turkey settle in.

I'm going with the Nuggets to cover the 4 points spread.

NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots

The Pittsburgh Steelers are one of the top teams in the AFC Conference. Don't look now, but so are the Patriots. Quarterback Matt Cassel, yes, the guy who has filled in for Tom Brady, has thrown for over 400 yards in each of his past two games.

That's pretty incredible considering Cassel hadn't started a football game since high school. He backed up Matt Leinart at USC. So what does Cassel do today against one of the top defenses in the AFC? Why he throws for at least 300, right?

That's the thing. Randy Moss and Matt Cassel have finally gotten onto the same page. The rest of the NFL had better start worrying about that.

The against the spread line is Patriots - 1. I believe the Pats cover easily in this game.

NFL: Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets

The Broncos are doing what they do at this point every NFL Season - - they're imploding. The New York Jets are doing something different than what they usually do at this point in the NFL Season. They are winning.

So, the 7 1/2 point spread in favor of the Jets makes sense. The only issue, of course, is that as good as the Jets are, they don't cover games as well as they should.

But, I'm not going to worry about that. To me, this game comes down to a simple fact - - the Jets will score and so will the Broncos. The Over/Under in this game is 47 1/2 points.

I'm going with the over in this one.

NFL: New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Saints are starting to play like the team almost every gambler expected them to be going into this NFL Season. The Tampa Bay Bucs lead the division and have one of the best defenses in the NFL.

In Week One the Saints beat the Bucs in the Superdome. The Bucs will be looking to turn the tables today, but the truth about this game is that the Saints are on a roll. They have been very, very good in two straight games and I expect Drew Brees and Co. to keep it going.

Marques Colston is slowly working his way into the Saints' offense. Pierre Thomas is getting better at running the ball from week to week.

I like to the Saints to beat the 4 1/2 point spread in this game. They have a chance to win this straight-up at + 170

NFL: New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins

The New York Giants are arguably the best team in football right now. They are also favored over their rivals in the NFC East Division, the Washington Redskins, today by 4 points.

This line opened up at 3 point and has now drifted up to 4 points. That's a nice one point swing. I do believe the Giants are the better team but this looks like a bit of a trap game to me.

I sort of have to go with Washington on the money line at + 170. The Giants should lose another game. I see them losing this one to the Washington Redskins.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

NBA: San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets

The Spurs travel to Houston to take on the Rockets as 4 1/2 point underdogs. Things haven't been going well for the Spurs this season but it's early. The Rockets were, and in some NBA betting circles are, considered one of the top teams in the entire NBA.

I'm nto sold on either team at this point, but I do feel that San Antonio is beginning to remeber who they are. That makes things dangerous for opposing teams who no doubt will find the going difficult against the Spurs. If San Antonio is back, then forget it. They win this game easily.

Horse Racing: California Flag Should Return to Winning Ways at Hollywood Park

California Flag, who the last time we saw him was running on top of a blistering pace in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, returns to action today at Hollywood Park in the Grade III Turf Express Handicap.

California Flag gets an outside draw and there's no doubt in my mind that he dominates this field. He's just too quick and the lack of any other real speed in this race, California Flag speed I mean, in this race means that California Flag takes the lead and goes off with it.

He's the play at 7 to 2 in Hollywood Park's 9th race.

Horse Racing: Cigar Mile Could Be a Coming Out Party for Storm Play

The James Jerkens' trained Storm Play will begin his quest to rise to the top of the handicap division by taking on some of the best horses in the nation in the Cigar Mile today.

Storm Play is 3 and 0 and, going into his fourth lifetime race, might be as solid of a play as any horse in the Cigar Mile. Visionaire, Arson Squad, Harlem Rocker, Wanderin' Boy and Kodiak Kowboy will all get play in this race. That means that the 9 to 2 on Storm Play is absolutely awesome.

He's an easy pick of the day because he has the most upside out of all of the contenders in the Cigar Mile, can lead or stalk, and gets the services of jockey Cornelio Velasquez. I love Storm Play to win the Cigar Mile today.

NCAAF: Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

This could be a big one because Auburn tradtionally is favored in this game. 'Bama has been the most consistent team in college football this season, but that could change in a heartbeat because the Auburn Tigers are more than capable of taking it to the Crimson Tide.

Why? This is the biggest rivalry in college football in my opinion and coach Tommy Tubberville knows that a victory over the Tide would turnaround what has become a down year for the Auburn Tigers. I see Auburn coming out an playing with fire.

They won't win this game - - Alabama is too good - - but they should keep it within the 14 1/2 point spread.

Auburn to beat the spread is the play in this game.

NCAAF: Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles

Usually, this would be a game full of drama but the Florida Gators are so much better than the Florida State Seminoles that there's no doubt in my mind that the Gators blow out Bobby Bowden's team. As much as I would like to make a case for the Seminoles in this game, one can't be made.

The Seminoles have no shot against that Florida offense and Florida's defense is actually better than people think. The loss to Ole Miss earlier this season doesn't look as bad now that Ole Miss has started to beat teams like LSU with ease. That means that Florida only needs to beat the Seminoles this weekend and then take it to Alabama next weekend in the SEC Championship game.

I'm going with Florida in this one to cover the spread.

NCAAF: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

This is the biggest game of the weekend because the Oklahoma State Cowboys are ranked in the top twenty. If Oklahoma were to win this game, and they are favored by 8 1/2, then it will be difficult to keep the Sooners out of the BCS Championship game. They will have beaten the number two ranked team in the nation, the Texas Tech Red Raiders one week, and then another top twenty team, the Cowboys, this week.

That's pretty impressive. As far as this game is concerned, I really don't see where the Sooners don't cover. Oklahoma State is good but nobody is playing better in the nation than the Oklahoma Sooners. I'm taking the Sooners at - 8 1/2 against the spread in this game.

NCAAF: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. USC Trojans

I haven'thad a chance to update this blog in about ten days. No worries. It's a terrific day to do it, right, because the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are in town to take onthe USC Trojans.

How crazy is this game? The Trojans are favored by 32 points. The money line bet is USC - 6000. Do the Fighting Irish have any chance of beating USC? No. But they definitely have a chance to stay within 32 points. USC is not the covering juggernaut that they have been in the past.

I'm going with Notre Dame in this one to beat the spread.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Horse Racing: Curlin's Retirement Leaves American Racing in Limbo

Curlin's retirement from thoroughbred racing will leave a huge void. Here's the thing - - yes, Curlin lost his final race to Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator. Yes, Curlin wasn't one of the top ten greatest horses of all time.

But he was certainly the best handicap horse that this nation had seen in a long time. Our American stock has started to get worse and worse. Our thoroughbreds just aren't nearly as hearty as they used to be. That makes Curlin's retirement even more bothersome.

Brilliant handicapping writers like Andy Beyer have been saying for years that American racing is on the downturn because of our awful breeding practices. I'm beginning to agree with writers like Beyer. The powerful Arabian stables like Godolphin and now the almost as powerful stables that have cropped up in Hong Kong, Japan, South Africa and Australia, are quickly passing the American racing community in terms of quality of animals.

We're in trouble. Oh, every once in a while a horse with Curlin's ability will come around that the American thoroughbred fan can rally around. But I fear that the times in between that special horse are going to be longer and longer.

Fare thee well, Curlin. And if horses pray, and who's to say they don't, give one to us - - your loyal American thoroughbred racing fans.

We're going to need those prayers if this nation wishes to continue to be the forefront of thoroughbred racing.

NFL Monday Re-cap: Bills Continue to Slide

So, I'm up here in S.F. for a totally unsport related reason and figured what the heck? I can't leave readers wanting regarding this past Monday's game, right?

So, how did we do? Well, we hit the over easily as the Bills and Browns exploded in the second half. We also hit the Browns against the spread as they were getting 5 points and won the game outright. I didn't cosign on making a bet on the Browns money line because from my perspective it just didn't make sense.

For the Browns, the win might be too little too late. For the Bills, the loss officially signals to NFL betting fans that the Bills are probably a play against until they prove otherwise. That could be the rest of this season!

Monday, November 17, 2008

NFL Monday: Browns vs. Bills

The Cleveland Browns travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills in what should be a serious game between both teams. The Bills have to win this game in order to right their ship while Cleveland...well, it's Cleveland.

The spread is 5 1/2 in this one. The money line is Browns + 200 and the total is 41.

I'm going to bypass making a bet on the Browns at + 200 because I just don't believe that they have the ability to win. The Browns have something against winning.

But I do believe that the Browns have a legitimate shot to beat the spread which means a wager on the Browns at + 5 1/2 looks good to me. I also believe that both offenses should do well in this game. So, I'll make another bet on this game going over the total of 41.

That's the parlay for tonight! Browns to the over.

Good Luck!

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Boxing vs. UFC: Lesnar Boring but So Was Jermaine Taylor

I went to my friend Damon's house to watch the Jermaine Taylor vs. Jeff Lacy fight. How interesting was the fight? John, Halestorm aka Jamal Shakespeare, Walt, Smitty and Philip and I (Dame was having a cigar on his patio) ended up discussing among other things:

1. How many NBA championship rings Robert Horry has (it's 7)
2. What was the best "swat" in both NBA and college basketball history.
3. Why in the world Halestorm lives in Phoenix.
4. The merits of "break" music (that's John's DJ style) as opposed to traditional house music (what the ex-wife and I used to party to back in the late 90's).

5. And, of course, fantasy football which is what middle-aged men do when they can no longer swill the liquor the way they used to and only one of them (that would be Damon again) has a real "adult" life.

Good times. But a BORING fight. In any case the Lesnar vs. Couture UFC "Greatest Fight of All Time" probably wasn't all that interesting either.

Oh, well. Congrats to both Brock Lesnar and Jermaine Taylor for their victories last night, but the drama just isn't there in any form of fighting nowadays. I think that us sports fans need to stick to the round ball, the pigskin, and those four legged demons that keep taking my money each weekend.

NFL: New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are better than their 1 and 8 record indicates which is why the spread has gone from 6 1/2 in favor of the Saints earlier this week to 5.

Even though I lost a tone of dough on the Saints last Sunday, I have to co-sign on them again. I sound like a Saintaholic. I sound like a man who has to many Hurricanes in the Quarter.

I sound like a guy wish issues. Okay. Whatever it is, the Saints this - - I hope.

NFL: Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

It goes to show you that the Las Vegas and online sportsbook odds makers are pretty bright fellas. They knew that NFL betting fans would want to make bets on the Jags to upset the Titans.

How do I know this? Because the money line on this game, in most books has settled around + 120 for the Jags. That's not a whole lot of dough above even money for Jacksonville versus an undefeated team.

I agree. The Jags should win this game and take the 9 and 0 Titans down a peg or two.

I'm going with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

NFL: Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins

The Cowboys get back Mrs. Jessica Simpson which should bode well for them. Then again, T-Romo, who is one of the nicest guys in the world I hear from my friend Big Dan, a psychotic Redskins fan, hasn't played in a while.

How will he do? Not well enough. The Redskins are only favored by 1 1/2 against the spread in this game. Simply put, they are a better team right now than the Cowboys. They have a solid back-up to the injured Clinton Portis in Ladell Betts and their defense is far superior to the 'Boys.

I'm going with the Skins to cover.

NFL: Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants

This is arguably the best game of the day. I can't really argue too much because when it comes down to it, these teams are both very good. The Ravens come into this game as a terrific 7 and 2 against the spread.

But so are the Giants. The line has been all over the place - - from 6 1/2 all the way up to 7 1/2 in some online books. I'm going with the G-Men to cover that. I just don't see them laying an egg at home and the Ravens' offense still needs some work.

Giants to cover.

Monday, November 10, 2008

NFL Monday Night: 49'ers + 10 Looks Good and the Under

I just got done having a heated, albeit very friendly, discussion with my good friend Damon about whether or not the game between the San Francisco 49'ers and the Arizona Cardinals tonight will go over or under.

We both like the 49'ers at + 10. You have to, I guess. But the over/under is currently at 47. Damon likes the over because the Cardinals can pretty much score at will. I like the under becasue S.F. can't really score at all and I have the feeling that the Cards might try to control the clock in this one.

I'm going S.F. at + 10 to the under 47.

Good Luck!

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Boxing: Calzaghe Win Proves that You Can't Always Follow the Money

Joe Calzaghe was a 4 to 1 favorite to beat Roy Jones Jr. earlier this week in a lot of online books. About an hour before the fight went off, his online odds dropped in most books by more than half. Roy Jones Jr. ended up a + 160 underdog, that's 1.6 to 1, to beat Calzaghe in last night's fight.

What happened? Jones knocked down Calzaghe in the first round and then proceeded to get pummeled by the English champions. Calzaghe easily won the fight.

So, what's the lesson in this? With the advent of online betting, and the increased popularity of the Las Vegas sportsbooks, it makes no sense to follow the money any more. It used to be that a serious line change would signal that someone "in the know" had information that regular bettors didn't. Not true in today's world of internet gaming.

Stick to your gut, folks. That's still the key to success.

NFL: New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The New York Giants travel to Philadelphia to try and increase their two game lead in the NFC East. The Giants have been the most impressive team from the NFC Conference so far this season. There really isn't anything not to like about this team as their defense, led by Justin Tuck on the D-line, has been exceptional and their offense is as solid as a unit can be.

The Eagles are led by the best running back/quarterback duo in the league in Donovan McNabb and Bryan Westbrook.

I racked my brain trying to find the winner of this game. Who did I end up going with? The Giants on the BetUS money-line of + 130, of course. How could I not? Any time you can get a team like the Giants at above even money in a bet, you have to take it.

That's who I'm going with - - the New York Giants.

NFL: New Orleans over Atlanta is the Bet of the Day

I rarely make a case for my beloved New Orleans Saints but in this case I sort of have to. The Saints are coming off of a bye where they got a chance to get All-Pro wide receiver Marques Colston back into the flow of the game. Drew Brees and Sean Payton got a whole week to figure out how to attack the Falcons, and the Saints defense got a chance to get healthy.

Atlanta is a terrific story. Even I have to admit that I didn't expect this from rookie quarterback Matt Ryan, but the Saints are just too tough offensively for the Falcons to handle and I expect middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma for the Saints to really cause havoc along that Falcon's front line. He's leading the NFL in tackles.

Shut down the run game, float to a Cover 2, and the Saints should win this game easily.

NFL: Chicago could Upset Tennessee, but what about Packers vs. Vikings?

The Chicago Bears have a decent chance as 3 point underdogs to upset the undefeated Tennessee Titans today. I like Chicago because the Titans look vulnerable and the Bears are at home. Of course, it all depends on "Sexy" Rexy Grossman, right?

The bigger game in the NFC North pits the Green Bay Packers against the Minnesota Vikings. Even though I believe the Vikings have put themselves into a much better positiont to secure a playoff spot, the Packers are the better team. I will be looking for the Green Bay sweep, they beat the Vikings in Week One, over Minnesota today.

NCAAF: Re-cap - - Penn State Goes Down, Alabama Hangs On, and Texas Tech Romps

Boy, was I off yesterday, or what? I mean, I really thought the Pokies of Oklahoma State had a chance to upset the Texas Tech Red Raiders. That didn't happen. Neither did LSU pulling out a win over the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Once game I shied away from, the Penn State vs. Iowa game, turned out to be the biggest upset of the day as the Nittany Lions fell in defeat.

I'm not sure about the Tide, they have to face Florida in the SEC Championship game, but I am sure about the Red Raiders. Chalk them up in the BCS Championship.


Saturday, November 8, 2008

NCAAF: Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech

Fresh off of a stirring victory over the Texas Longhorns, the Texas Tech Red Raiders now must deal with the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys are easily one of the best teams in college football and will pose another series of problems for the Red Raiders.

As good as that Red Raiders offense is, I don't believe they have the right defense to stop the Pokies' running game. Because of that, I'm calling another upset. Let's say that both the number one ranked BCS team in the land, the Alabama Crimson Tide, and the number two ranked BSC team in the land, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, both go down on the same day. That would leave Penn State and Jo Pa at the top, right?

I'm calling it!

NCAAF: Alabama vs. LSU Highlights Saturday Afternoon

'Bama, the number one ranked team in college football, takes on the LSU Tigers in a Saturday afternoon battle of two extremely tough SEC teams.

I know that all of the trends favor the Crimson Tide in this game, read my article in the BetUS Locker Room if you don't believe me, but I have that sneaky feeling that a number one team might go down again. Call me crazy, but the LSU Tigers are sort of ready to shock the world, don't you think? This game is in Baton Rouge and as well as Alabama has been playing, I just don't believe Nick Saban has this team ready for a BCS Championship. 'Bama goes down.

NFL Monday Re-cap: Pitt Comes Through

It's been a few days, but can you blame me? I mean, Barrack Obama was running for president! An interesting story is that a good friend of mine's father waas with Muhammed Ali at the time that Barrack won. Let's just say that emotions were very high that night.

On another note, I once again nailed the Monday night match-up int he NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers, sans Ben Rothelisberger, beat the more favored, albeit slightly, Washington Redskins straight-up and against the spread (of course!) and the game went under the 37 1/2 total. This is the second time this year that I've nailed all three bets on the Monday night game. Not bad, D.S. Not bad.


Monday, November 3, 2008

NFL Monday Night: Look For Pittsburgh in a Slight Upset

Look for the Steelers to pull of a slight upset in tonight's Monday night NFL game. Pittsburgh is a 2 1/2 point underdog in the game. There's no reason not to go for them since this game will come down to which team can move the ball in the fourth quarter.

The Redskins will be without Santana Moss, their best offensive player. Without Santana, I'm afraid it's all over but the shouting.

I'm going with the Steelers at + 2 1/2.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

NFL: Houston Texans Best Bet

The best bet of the day, without a doubt, are the Houston Texans versus the Minnesota Vikings. The game starts in about forty minutes.

The Texans are a 4 1/2 point underdog. Take the points and the Texans and watch as the Vikings implode.

I love Houston in this game. The quarterback/wide receiver duo of Matt Schaub and Adnre Johnson is just too tough for the Vikings to handle.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

NCAAF: Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs

This game is at a neutral site (I believe!) which is going to make things very difficult for either team to get the upper hand. Georgia, this season's pre-season number one ranked team, has the ability to really do some great things in this.

The Florida Gators are teh better team, no doubt, but they are 8 1/2 points better whcih is what the line was this morning when I checked it.

Getting 8 1/2 points, heck getting 6 1/2 points, on the Georgia Bulldogs is just too good to pass up. I'm going with Georgia.

www.betus.com/ats/13754/radio

NCAAF: Texas Tech Could Make an Impact

The biggest game today pits the Texas Tech Red Raiders in a home showdown versus the Texas Longhorns. The Longhorns have one of the top pass rushes in all of college football. The Red Raiders? Their offensive line has given up only three sacks all season.

I'm gong with the Red Raiders in this one at + 145 on the BetUS money line. That's the bet I will be doing. I see the Red Raiders winning this stratight-up. It's a good chance for college football bettors to make some dough above even money.

www.betus.com/ats/13754/radio