Joe Calzaghe was a 4 to 1 favorite to beat Roy Jones Jr. earlier this week in a lot of online books. About an hour before the fight went off, his online odds dropped in most books by more than half. Roy Jones Jr. ended up a + 160 underdog, that's 1.6 to 1, to beat Calzaghe in last night's fight.
What happened? Jones knocked down Calzaghe in the first round and then proceeded to get pummeled by the English champions. Calzaghe easily won the fight.
So, what's the lesson in this? With the advent of online betting, and the increased popularity of the Las Vegas sportsbooks, it makes no sense to follow the money any more. It used to be that a serious line change would signal that someone "in the know" had information that regular bettors didn't. Not true in today's world of internet gaming.
Stick to your gut, folks. That's still the key to success.
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